Bob Casey’s Latest Chances of Holding Pennsylvania Senate Seat

Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, a Democrat, is facing off against Republican Dave McCormick, as the GOP seeks to flip control of the Senate in the upcoming November elections.
Casey, who has held his seat since 2006 and is seeking his fourth term, has consistently maintained a solid base of support in the Keystone State, frequently outperforming other Democrats in this battleground.
McCormick meanwhile is a former hedge fund chief executive and won the Republican primary with the endorsement of former president, Donald Trump.
Pennsylvania remains a closely contested state in national elections, often divided evenly between Democrats and Republicans.
The state could be pivotal in determining whether Republicans can retake a Senate majority.
However, polls suggest that Casey continues to hold a consistent lead over his Republican challenger.
Recent surveys show Casey with an advantage in most head-to-head matchups. A Morning Consult poll, conducted from August 30 to September 8 among 1,910 likely voters, shows Casey leading McCormick by nine points, 49 percent to 40 percent.
Another poll by Co/efficient, conducted from September 4 to 6 with 889 likely voters, also gives Casey a comfortable lead of 45 percent to McCormick’s 36 percent.
Not all polls, however, paint such a clear picture. A CNN/SSRS poll from August 23 to 29, conducted among 789 likely voters, has the two candidates tied at 46 percent, suggesting the race could tighten as election day approaches.
Meanwhile, a YouGov poll conducted for CBS News between September 3 and 6 of 1,078 likely voters has Casey up by seven points, 48 percent to McCormick’s 41 percent. A Wick poll conducted from August 27 to 29, among 1,607 likely voters, shows a narrower margin, with Casey leading 48 percent to 46 percent.
Although some polls indicate a closer contest, Casey’s overall standing remains steady. The Cook Political Report continues to classify the Pennsylvania Senate race as “Lean Democratic,” indicating that while the race is competitive, Casey is seen as having the advantage.
McCormick’s campaign has yet to close the gap significantly, but with months to go before the election, both parties will be working to sway undecided voters in a state that has been crucial in recent political cycles.
On the presidential level, polls show that Pennsylvania is a dead heat between former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
In 2022, Democrats had strong performances in Pennsylvania despite Republican hopes for a “red wave.” Democrat Josh Shapiro, then the attorney general, won the state’s gubernatorial race by nearly 15 points and then-Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman won the Senate race by nearly five points.
Newsweek reached out to the Casey and McCormick campaigns for comment via email.